Decline was a fairly steady rate that 'Fey and Insomnia were tracking up until SUP took over properly, at that point it seemed to stabilise then start growing (IIRC), but from what we could see, that growth was entirely Russian, and the English decline was possibly even faster (although those figures were very hard to confirm for many obvious reasons).

I suspect those that're left are those unlikely to jump to places like here, but they may simply drift away; I know a lot of my fandom inclined friends have come here, blogging inclined friends have gone to WP in some form, and the networkers had already gone to FB (I don't think I've seen a "what X are you" quiz for over a year now, which is nice).

Which is why the pro-DW specific comments in news posts will sometimes get jumped on, there are those still convinced LJ can do no wrong and any other site is evil.

I also suspect Analytics will simply be accepted; it's already fairly standard, a lot of people opt out, and you could already do fairly similar with services like LJ Toys. Analytics helps you see stuff, whereas Share This and Like encourage people you don't know to read your stuff.

I think those that turn analytics on and have public journals will get some surprising results; the desire of SUP to put ads on Basic accounts wasn't for current content, it was to monetise all the old posts that get search traffic &c, but so few people got that.